Cyber war
Experts continue to disagree over the cyber dimension of the dreadful conflict in Ukraine. A Foreign Affairs analysis entitled "The Myth of the Missing Cyberwar" argues that Russian hacking not only succeeded in Ukraine and but also poses a threat elsewhere. In particular, it points to the attack on the KA-SAT satellite broadband service, as well as strikes against many official Ukrainian resources. "A full accounting of the cyber-operations reveals the proactive and persistent use of cyberattacks to support Russian military objectives," the authors argue.
While that's true, it's worth pointing out that Russia's cyber operations have had far less impact than previous attacks against Ukraine. In 2015, Moscow managed to disable the power grid in large parts of the country, and in 2017 the infamous NotPetya malware caused an estimated $10 billion worth of damage not just in Ukraine but around the world. This time, Ukraine was able to defend itself much more effectively. A US researcher describes how he led a US-funded program to train hundreds of cybersecurity academics and students. Key lessons were effective access control and eliminating the use of pirated software. Adoption of official tools meant that Russian attacks were spotted almost immediately. And in Washington, the US said it had secretly removed malware from computer networks around the world to pre-empt Russian cyberattacks.
There are also signs of gaps in Russia's information blockade, with Cloudflare reporting signs of increasing use of Western news sources. In March, the most downloaded mobile apps in Russia were VPN solutions, Telegram, and a privacy-focused service from Cloudflare that prevents internet service providers monitoring requests for web pages. It says its service has shown a significant rise in Russia-based use, with most requests for major US, British and French newspapers. Controlling internet use is hard, as Sri Lanka demonstrated this week. Amid widespread unrest, the government imposed a ban on social media only to lift it 16 hours later. The President's nephew resigned as a minister and derided the ban as "completely useless", which he demonstrated by posting the comment on Twitter.